It appears to me people really struggle to look past the first order effects of AI

I just copied your document into chatgpt to review it

First order: "I feel so much more productive, I am getting so much more done by using AI to review all the documents."

Second order: "Thanks for confirming your value boils down to a prompt we can run ourselves (we’ve been logging your prompts), we won’t require your services anymore. Kthxbye"

“Electronic Arts: We’re going to make so many more video games so much faster with AI, it’s gonna be a golden time for shareholders. “

First order: Shareholders appreciate the shrinking of the workforce and replacing of human creatives for AI generated content, enabling continued market performance.

Second Order: Everyone is making so many more games so much cheaper, competing for the same eyeballs who have exactly as much time to game as last year. People can’t buy what they don’t know and Cost Per User Acquisition paid to Meta, Google, Apple and Amazon, due to massive expansion of supply, rose exponentially, consuming all the savings we have. Valve still laughs at us and shareholders l prefer investing in real AI stocks. Trumps Son in Law buys us out for the IP.

”By adopting AI coding we were able to finishing our MVP quicker, in time for the seed pitch”

First Order: We managed to get seed funding and land early customers much quicker and with a much smaller team than anticipated.

Second order: In the time we took to pitch for Series A, the VC’s portfolio company ran our deck through claude, copied it and used the money we spent on researching/building to go to market/ads. They acqui-hired our chief engineer and sent a golden iphone to the SEC to ensure approval. We are toast.

🤖 “Our AI native chatbot product experience makes it easier for our customers to interact with our product”

First order: CEO has “encouraging early signs” for earnings calls. Investors are happy. Customers like the reduced friction.

Second order: Our AI model provider, having identified we have a product market fit usecase by our token consumption and, having full observability on all critical data flow from us and our competitors across our entire business has launched a competing product at subsidized pricing, miraculously targeting our top customers. We’ve been Amazon Basic’d, how could this have happened.

TLDR:

• Any capability that’s diffused at low cost to the entire economy ceases to be of economic value.
• Economic value resides in scarcity or gets reduced towards zero via competition, Eyeballs are scarce, tokens are not. Economies of scale massively advantage big tech.
• Transformers commoditize knowledge retrieval. Consequently any economic activity predicated on knowledge retrieval is depreciating with effects reverberate across education and careers.
• Responsibility, and decision authority protect can't easily be delegated to AI, despite "agent" rah rah.
• Unmapped knowledge is temporary at universal observability.